The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.

The insolvency resolution process, which seeks to address stressed assets in a quick and time-bound manner, appeared to lose its steam in 2021 with delays and eyebrows were also raised over actual realisations as creditors took steep "hair cuts" in some cases. The National Company Law Tribunal, the designated authority under the insolvency law, and the appellate tribunal NCLAT continued to grapple with a lack of resources in terms of vacant positions of judges and poor infrastructure. As a result, the virtual adjudication process, the mode adopted in the wake of the pandemic, also slowed down.

With a revival in demand and consumption, FMCG companies are looking forward to 2022 with positivity and hopes of sustaining a healthy growth trend across both rural and urban markets while gearing up to cater to the ever-increasing digitally active consumers and tackle the challenge of higher commodity prices. Health and wellness and convenience are going to remain key trends and FMCG companies are strengthening their core brands, driving premiumisation across their portfolios with targeted innovations as consumers are gravitating towards trusted brands looking for quality, purity and hygiene, in continuation of the trend that started since the pandemic last year. FMCG makers are accelerating digitalisation and are investing in building capability in e-commerce and Direct-to-Consumer channels, identifying it as a key vector of their growth as the threat of a possible third wave is still not away.

The industry is expecting double-digit growth on a year-on-year basis, helped by a possible price correction after softening of raw material inputs and factors such as positive sentiments, pent up demand and improving economic conditions. Besides, a shift in consumer behaviour from price consciousness towards technologically advanced premium products with quality, value proposition and safety aspects leading to a rise in demand for home automation products is making the industry upbeat. With the government's production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for white goods, which has witnessed a committed investment of Rs 4,614 crore, in place, many manufacturers are gearing up to make the most out of the opportunity as well as take steps towards reducing their dependency on imports and make products more affordable.

With an epic battle of billionaires for supremacy in one of the world's most prolific markets and a pandemic-propelled surge in online shopping in the background, India's nearly trillion-dollar retail market is hoping to touch 85 per cent of the pre-COVID business in the first half of the New Year. In a year when the COVID-19 carnage ripped apart the retail business, circa 2020 will best go down for the unravelling of the war between Jeff Bezos, the world's wealthiest man, and richest Indian Mukesh Ambani for pre-eminence in the booming market that is estimated to reach $1.3 trillion by 2025. It all started with Ambani's Reliance Industries agreeing in August to buy assets of the nation's second-largest retailer for Rs 24,713 crore, just a year after Bezos' Amazon purchased an indirect stake in the indebted Future Retail.

As part of its expansion plans, Jio has announced the roll-out of Internet of Things (IoT) services in association with Samsung, which will help consumers and enterprises.

Having learnt their Maggi lessons hard way in 2015, the FMCG sector is desperately looking for a brighter new year with hopes pinned on revival in rural demand.

New projects will boost investment in India, says Anand Mahindra.